A woman leaves flowers at the feet of the bull statue in front of the Bombay Stock Exchange. Couldn't find the photographer on this one. if you know, let me know.
An interesting article by Zachary Karabell dissects the "Great Recession." It turns out said economic bust might not be as massive as we thought, but has still produced a massive shift:
First of all, it’s a stretch to rank the recent meltdown in the top five worst downturns in American history. During the Great Depression, unemployment in the United States was 25%, and that was a low-ball estimate at best. Equity markets lost more than 80% of their value, and thousands of banks collapsed. When you lost your home in the 1930s, you likely became homeless, hence the sight of “Hoovervilles,” those tent cities that popped up in New York and throughout the country. Or take the 1973-1974 downturn, which was followed by years of double-digit inflation, the near bankruptcy of New York City, and a sharp rise in crime and urban decay. The economic crises of the 19th century were worse: the Panic of 1873 led to years when as much as half the American labor force lost their jobs.
Outside the United States, the Great Recession wasn’t nearly as great. Unlike prior economic crises, when governments fell and mobs assaulted the centers of power, there has been little political upheaval and almost no violence. In fact, large swaths of the world – China most notably, but followed closely by Brazil and India – emerged with their relative position enhanced as a result of the crisis. China has $2.4 trillion in reserves and a larger share of world trade than before the crisis, and India—by virtue of having an insulated and partly closed financial system – suffered far less and has emerged much stronger. In fact, what is termed the worst crisis since the Great Depression in the United States and Europe is actually the greatest boon since decolonization for much of the rest of the world.
In that respect, the world has changed. The locus of financial and economic activity has moved away from the United States and become dispersed throughout the world. No one center has replaced the United States, and indeed, the U.S. remains pivotal, large and absolutely central to the economic vitality of the globe. But the crisis did put an exclamation point on what had been happening in the decade before, namely the emergence of multiple regions as viable and vital economic powerhouses, especially Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong but also Mumbai, Abu Dhabi and Dubai (even a hobbled Dubai), Rio and Sao Paulo, and even Toronto.
Interesting part there about India's semi-closed financial system helping to immunize its economy: autarky has its place.
This sort of shift is exactly the reason I gave this blog its name: upheaval, especially dramatic as of late, is breaking up old structures with no clear successor in their wake. Likewise, this exemplifies another important point about the Breaking Time we live in: it could end up as a golden age as easily as a dark one. In fact, it might have aspects of both (the Renaissance was, after all, a shit time to be an Aztec).
So now we see that the recession that has everyone in Europe and the US freaking out is a nascent boom for much of the rest of the world. This is, naturally, awesome news if you're an Indian or Brazilian, not so much if you're a manufacturing worker in the U.S. or an unemployed youth in Germany.
Of course, much of the last decade's prosperity was a bubble, based on unsustainable levels of debt and hyper-inflated prices for certain commodities. That's not going to come back, and it probably shouldn't. While the economic measures taken by many countries have largely prevented the economy from bleeding out, and this is a far cry from the Great Depression, rebuilding prosperity into something more durable is going to be a long road.
Which brings up another point about changing times: they're invigorating in retrospect but often terrifying to live through.
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