The Breaking Time

The Ice Age is coming, Ctd.

As an epilogue to the last post on London's riots, I think it's fitting to add this map of London's impoverished areas overlaid with the riots. It handily illustrates both the underlying causes and the stupid tragedy of rioting, as the poor areas see the most destruction.

The furor's mostly died down, and MPs returned from their holidays for a basically pointless debate. Somehow I don't think Prime Minister David Cameron's insistence that the riots were "criminality, pure and simple" is exactly the approach needed to defuse a volatile situation and prompt a frank reassessment of the best way to prevent a repeat. Instead, expect more brutal tactics, more surveillance and more governmental cluelessness.

The Ice Age is coming.

Big Black Market: The drug money bailout

Imagine this map in a Charlotte banking executive's PowerPoint presentation

An investigation from The Observer reveals that Wachovia, a major bank, laundered billions for Mexican drug cartels:

During a 22-month investigation by agents from the US Drug Enforcement Administration, the Internal Revenue Service and others, it emerged that the cocaine smugglers had bought the plane with money they had laundered through one of the biggest banks in the United States: Wachovia, now part of the giant Wells Fargo.

The authorities uncovered billions of dollars in wire transfers, traveller's cheques and cash shipments through Mexican exchanges into Wachovia accounts. Wachovia was put under immediate investigation for failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering programme. Of special significance was that the period concerned began in 2004, which coincided with the first escalation of violence along the US-Mexico border that ignited the current drugs war.

Criminal proceedings were brought against Wachovia, though not against any individual, but the case never came to court. In March 2010, Wachovia settled the biggest action brought under the US bank secrecy act, through the US district court in Miami. Now that the year's "deferred prosecution" has expired, the bank is in effect in the clear. It paid federal authorities $110m in forfeiture, for allowing transactions later proved to be connected to drug smuggling, and incurred a $50m fine for failing to monitor cash used to ship 22 tons of cocaine.

More shocking, and more important, the bank was sanctioned for failing to apply the proper anti-laundering strictures to the transfer of $378.4bn – a sum equivalent to one-third of Mexico's gross national product – into dollar accounts from so-called casas de cambio (CDCs) in Mexico, currency exchange houses with which the bank did business.

It gets better, mind you, with Wachovia hanging out the whistleblower who discovered the laundering out to dry. As a case of major financial malfeasance, this is bad enough. But this paragraph in particular struck me:

The conclusion to the case was only the tip of an iceberg, demonstrating the role of the "legal" banking sector in swilling hundreds of billions of dollars – the blood money from the murderous drug trade in Mexico and other places in the world – around their global operations, now bailed out by the taxpayer.

At the height of the 2008 banking crisis, Antonio Maria Costa, then head of the United Nations office on drugs and crime, said he had evidence to suggest the proceeds from drugs and crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to banks on the brink of collapse. "Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs trade," he said. "There were signs that some banks were rescued that way."

That's big news, revealing the metamorphosis of corporate finance into a creature with enough tentacles in both government and the black market to draw from both in time of crisis. This is not entirely unexpected. Remember how one of the major factors behind the housing bubble was "everyone else is making shit tons of money off it, why don't we?" The black market, after all, is a growth industry that accounts for 15 percent of the world's GDP. For an amoral organization looking for quick profits, it's a natural fit.

The problem of the cartels' drug trade is its own issue, but historically financial entities had to (mostly) stay away from the black market on any massive scale. For all their white collar crimes, banking institutions do rely on legal guarantees to operate, and so are structurally more vulnerable to the law than the "black collar" sector.

Now? The line is fading, and Wachovia escaped with little more than a slap on the wrist. For future joint ventures between the legal and illegal markets, few things could be more auspicious.

P.S. If you happen to have an account at Wachovia, this might be a good time to switch to a credit union. They don't rely on murderous drug gangs and don't treat their customers like shit.

A world of cupcakes and gang turf

A map of San Francisco's Mission District, combining the location of cupcake bakeries with the territory of the Norteño and Sureño gangs. Map by Danya Al-Saleh. See the full, glorious original

My, that's quite an arresting image, isn't it? Al-Saleh, a UC Berkeley undergrad, told Edible Geography that she made the image, in part, as a reminder to those dining in a hip neighborhood that a very different reality existed around them.

It's an innovative piece, and does what excellent maps do: give us a greater awareness of the world. In this case, Al-Saleh illuminates the cultures and economies existing right on top of each other. Cupcakes and Sureños are only a shard, any metropolis has similar layers upon layers. The decision to add the boundary of the gang injunction is the icing on the cupcake; showing a state attempt to deal with a borderless entity.

Remember this when someone tells you, blithely, that "everybody knows." I hear this a lot in Asheville, but we've got no monopoly on the attitude. "Everybody knows that part of town is crap."

Do they now? No, what the speaker actually means is "me and my friends believe." The slippery thing about knowledge is that always remains unknown to someone.

And speaking of puncturing things "everyone knows," feast your eyes on the 12 States of America.

Fuck you, Red State/Blue State. Map by Column Five Media

Yes, back in the dirty days of the 2000s, everybody knew that the country was divided into big blocs of Red states and Blue states, each representing two diametrically opposed cultures. It was convenient, giving the right-wing a chance to feel powerful and Yankees another paper-thin excuse to feel superior.

Along comes this new map, befitting a fractured era concerned with a shaky economy. The 12 "States" measured by the differing effects of income inequality over the past 30 years, are swaths and enclaves, things like "tractor country," "minority central" and "service worker centers." While obscuring plenty, it's a hell of a lot more accurate (and interesting), than its predecessor. We live in a world where cupcakes and gang territory coexist, like it or not.

Poems for Friday: That the Science of Cartography is Limited

Famine road in County Galway, Ireland

It is interesting to see other points of view, not simply for all the usual reasons, but because they end up placing common sights within an entirely new context. That fact has been on my mind this week for a number of reasons, contrasted with navigating between cities using directions spat out from a computer.

Looking out my window, I wonder what has happened beneath, what is forgotten in the piles of structured stones now breathing slowly in the half-snow. There are some views that will never be mapped. Eavan Boland has the heart of the matter here:

-and not simply by the fact that this shading of 
forest cannot show the fragrance of balsam, 
the gloom of cypresses 
is what I wish to prove. 

When you and I were first in love we drove 
to the borders of Connacht 
and entered a wood there. 

Look down you said: this was once a famine road. 

I looked down at ivy and the scutch grass 
rough-cast stone had 
disappeared into as you told me 
in the second winter of their ordeal, in 

1847, when the crop had failed twice, 
Relief Committees gave 
the starving Irish such roads to build. 

Where they died, there the road ended 
and ends still and when I take down 
the map of this island, it is never so 
I can say here is 
the masterful, the apt rendering of 

the spherical as flat, nor 
an ingenious design which persuades a curve 
into a plane, 
but to tell myself again that 

the line which says woodland and cries hunger 
and gives out among sweet pine and cypress, 
and finds no horizon 

will not be there.

The Rundown: blood and lithium

Tomorrow's gasoline?

* U.S. Discovers massive mineral wealth in Afghanistan Roughly $1 trillion worth: 

The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

There's my favorite Chinese curse, which goes "May you live in interesting times. May you attract the notice of those in high places. May you find what you are looking for." All three seem to apply in this case. Yet again a case of massive natural wealth found in a brutally fractious country. So far, much of the reaction I've heard has resembled "Oh. Shit."

Of course, the United States and many other industrial powerhouses once had massive resource reserves, but those have largely been used up and all the cheap stuff now lies underground of harsh political and geographical terrain.

Many of the devices powering the information revolution depend on lithium batteries. It will be interesting to see if technologists end up supporting bloodshed to keep that cheap, just as previous generations did to preserve cheap oil.

Of course, this cycle can't continue forever. We've got to find better ways of recycling old technology and using less resources in the new stuff.

Conor Friedersdorf argues the United States should run away from the Afghan resources, "sending someone else across the minefield in our stead. The United Nations? The World Bank? The China Mineral Corporation? Whoever it is, better that they suffer the consequences of this find than that we do."

* Chamber President wants government to pay for BP cleanup Speaking of the dangers of risky resource extraction, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce plans to push for the government to bail BP out.

It's a particularly shocking display of privilege, unjustifiable under free market ideals or any other. The translation on his statement is easy: "Shut up peasant, and pay your betters."

* Culinary diplomacy with the Axis of Evil Cafe The Conflict Kitchen, started by a group of Pittsburgh artists, features food from places the U.S. is on bad terms with. The project is intended "to help people see these countries as everyday, human places that are defined by more than just their policies and government." 

The article has a particularly interesting account of a meal (and the ensuing conversation) via satellite between a group in Tehran and Pittsburgh. 

* New Soft City One of the latest augmented reality proposal. We'll see how it pans out. I'm waiting for the inevitable black market/social uses of this technology to start arising and honestly I find them more fascinating than seeing in flashier ways if the buses are running on time. 

* And Still They Cry Out On the anniversary of the Green Uprising, rebel calls still ring from Tehran rooftops. 

* Prince Poppycock at America's Got Talent. Let's change things for a sec for the less serious. This is just absolutely divine.

The Rundown: Razing Arizona edition

Flank attack!

* LA boycotts Arizona. Arizona threatens to cut off power LA invades Arizona, rounds up supporters of draconian anti-immigrant law and deports them to Mexico. Ok, so I'm making that last part up (though, as Grumpy Owl points out, LA already has their marching music).

On another note, the fight over Arizona's law illustrates a number of interesting breaking points and important shifts. The first is how ill-equipped state lines mostly drawn in the 19th century are to dealing with today's environmental and resource issues. One of the major things states fight about is resources: who's stealing whose water, power, etc. Part of this is because environmental regions are hacked up, pie-style, between any number of arbitrary boundaries. The basic support system for a modern city stretches across many political jurisdictions, something that makes tackling disagreements or problems extremely difficult.

Also, notice that it's LA fighting Arizona: a city versus a state. Within Arizona, Phoenix is notable as a hot-bed of opposition to the law. As more and more people move to cities, they become greater centers of political power, often deeply at odds with the surrounding territory. Forget Red States and Blue States (one of the dumbest political memes of the past decade), look at a more accurate map and you'll see that the biggest political divide is urban-rural.

* New Social Networking Site Changing the Way, Oh, Christ, Forget It "Let someone else report on this bullshit." The Onion goes there. Spectacularly.

* Is the Drug War more militarized than the military? A soldier argues that raids in Afghanistan and Iraq often have more restrictions than SWAT teams busting in the doors of suspected drug traffickers. An interesting read.

* Robot conducts wedding in Tokyo No word yet on if the infernal machine seduced the bride beforehand. 

An interesting example of how culture can drive technology as much as the other way around. Japan has more (and often more sophisticated) robots than anywhere else in the world. This is partly because Japan's is a first-world industrial power with the resources to build such devices. However, there's also a cultural fascination that shapes what it builds with that capability, and what ends it's put to.

Speaking of...

* Because Every Country is the Best at Something Yes, Japan actually is number 1 in the world in the robotics department. The US leads in, uh, serial killers (send them to fight the robots, I smell a hit movie here). The UK leads in CCTV cameras and France in sugar beets. It's a strange world.

* The French Anti-Burqa Jihad An excellent column by Indian atheist Shikha Dalmia on the crusading and dictatorial impulses behind France's new law. Includes this passage, which could stand to be repeated often:

Nor will it do to justify this ban on grounds that it will save women from having to make painful personal choices. It is not the job of liberal governments to make personal tradeoffs painless--just possible. Giving individuals the right to exit without fearing physical retaliation provides an automatic check on oppressive traditions without taking away the crucial tool that minority communities in liberal polities have to perpetuate themselves: moral suasion. Banning the burqa or the Sikh turban or the Jewish yarmulke is tantamount to telling observant Muslims, Sikhs and Jews that they don't have a right to exist.

Despite years of sectarian bloodletting, if Indians still intuitively understand this and take a benign view of the burqa, it is hardly because they are inherently more rational. It is because their secularism has been shaped by India's dominant religion--Hinduism--whose non-monotheistic ethos allows the space for multiple faiths. In this sense, Hinduism is perhaps more profoundly in sync with liberal tolerance than monotheistic faiths.

More crucially, however, there is nothing in Hinduism that makes an individual's spiritual salvation anyone's business except the individual herself. By contrast, Hitchens, et al, who have been raised in the cradle of a Christian civilization, have imbibed a certain comfort level with the crusading notion that people can--and ought to--be saved even against their will. Hence, it does not matter if Muslim women don't regard the burqa as oppressive. They have to be given sartorial liberation in the same way that the heathens need to be given spiritual liberation.

This is a profoundly anti-liberal and anti-secular idea. Indeed, if the French and Hitchens were serious about either secularism or liberalism, instead of asking Muslim women to shed the burqa, they would be shedding their own proselytizing prejudice against it.

Amen. I've always found it interesting that the anti-Roman Christian sects ended up becoming the heir to the Roman Empire. Similarly, I can't help but wonder if a certain strand of atheism won't end up embodying the crusading and socially meddlesome mentality of its worst foes. The wheel turns...

States. Who needs 'em?

Neil Freeman's reformed map of the United States. Larger version here

Above is a brilliant cartographical thought experiment by artist and urban planner Neil Freeman. Responding to the wonky electoral college and the fact that sparsely populated regions have a disproportionate political power, while highly prosperous urban areas wield relatively little, he redrew the state boundaries along population and geographical boundaries. Each has (as of the 2000 census figures) roughly 5.6 million people.

It's particularly fascinating because it offers a snapshot of how an industrial society has changed and how some of the most important administrative divisions (states here or in Australia, provinces in Canada, etc.) fail to reflect that.  

This would seem to be a trivial difference, but it's not. Witness how New York, a city with the GDP and population of a small country, feels stifled by the legislature in Albany. Witness how different the needs and views of the many different parts of California are (would LA or SF Bay states have a Prop 8?). I've heard more than one urban Canadian grouse about how much power remains in the hands of clueless provincial governments.

State governments were drawn up in the days when slower technology made quick administration over a nation difficult, and thus a middle layer of government was more essential. Today, the boundaries are essentially arbitrary, and state governments complicate a whole range of policies on important issues such as transportation and the environment. Even many smart people still (mistakenly) peg cultural qualities to certain states, whether dividing them into Red or Blue or swearing to boycott/move away from a particular one when the electorate votes the wrong way.

Freeman's map shows a country organized closer to how it actually functions: large rural swaths, clusters of medium-sized cities and a few super-dense city-states.

It's often said that the future is local. To some extent I think this is true: there's certainly a need for active, powerful local government along with a more self-sufficient economy. I also think that a grander-scale government entity is absolutely necessary to have a hope of tackling more massive problems. However, to fulfill that, a far larger structure than the traditional state/province is needed.

The larger question then, is where the state, history's political middle-man, fits in the future. Does it have one at all?

P.S. - Freeman's map also abolishes South Carolina. The official Breaking Time stance on this is Yes.

Ghost ships: Of looming hulks and future pirates

The lights of the ghost fleet off the coast of Malaysia

About 50 miles from Singapore, the world's largest navy is gathering. It flies no single flag. The fleet's only allegiance is to getting its hulls filled with cargo. 

The ships are commercial, stranded by the economic upheaval of the past year. On skeleton crews, they wait for business to pick back up. And wait.

The Daily Mail has the story:

Here, on a sleepy stretch of shoreline at the far end of Asia, is surely the biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history. Their numbers are equivalent to the entire British and American navies combined; their tonnage is far greater. Container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers - all should be steaming fully laden between China, Britain, Europe and the US, stocking camera shops, PC Worlds and Argos depots ahead of the retail pandemonium of 2009. But their water has been stolen.

They are a powerful and tangible representation of the hurricanes that have been wrought by the global economic crisis; an iron curtain drawn along the coastline of the southern edge of Malaysia's rural Johor state, 50 miles east of Singapore harbour.

 

Map of part of the fleet, with ship names. Full version here.

Well shit, that can't be good. The ships are along a sleepy stretch of Malaysian coast, but they're a stone's throw from the world's busiest port. So far, the fleet is standing still, and seems regarded as a symptom of more dire economic issues than a problem in itself. 

That could change, however. Right now, the skeleton crews seem terrified of piracy. That is one danger, yes, as their ships would make particularly ripe pickings. The fleet is also an environmental disaster waiting to happen, if frustrated crews just abandon the oil tankers and massive cargo ships.

Of course, they could also turn to piracy themselves.

It would take some coordination and a culture shift (most of the crews are from a merchant background, not naturally prone to violence), but desperate times do desperate things. Even a portion of the fleet could seriously impede Singapore's shipping if they were positioned just right. 

That mercantile city-state has a particularly good, well-equipped navy, and it would doubtless have allies, but the sheer numbers would be hard to overcome. Boarding and seizing that many ships would be risky. Sinking them would also be a catastrophic blow to shipping operations, making the nearby waters less navigable. 

This scenario may be unlikely, but it's not impossible. There are a lot of desperate people in that fleet and I'd bet that some of their plans might be turning to a darker cast right now.

On a related note, this is a reminder of how, despite the march of technology, something as old-fashioned as boats hauling cargo on water remains absolutely vital to the world economy. We often think of goods as just arriving in their places by magic, but there's a vastly complex network behind every single item. When those begin to break, something big's about to happen.

Gov 2.0: Brilliant maps and blind spots

It's the first day of the Gov 2.0 conference; up on the giant screen in a darkened room, I see a California wildfire unfold in real time. Mapping technology has advanced this far and the demonstrators are eager to demonstrate how they can overlay the maps, rapid-fire to show the gathered attendees a new vision of the world.

Fascinating stuff, and not just due to my map fetish. Maps are powerful things: they affect how we influence the world, and what information we have to grapple with it. It isn't hard to see this capability changing how government interacts with the world, especially in increasingly large metropoli that must balance environmental, demographic and development concerns all at once.

There was a whirlwind of ideas, so many it's hard to know where to begin.

Clay Shirky managed to balance optimism with practicality, noting that people never do what's expected of them, and that there are dangers in an organization—government, newspaper or otherwise—losing control completely, just as there are in it keeping too tight a grip. Carol Dumaine, of the Energy Department's intelligence arm, gave a much-needed bitter blast about the coming upheavals of climate change. MindTel's David Warner talked about combining maps with intelligence and reconstruction work in Afghanistan (he's been there 10 times). Those last two were refreshingly practical. 

There was also an interesting note of controversy when Rep. John Culbertson (R-TX) took the stage. Culbertson, a hard-line conservative, got to technology early and often. He called the health care reform bill "trash" and said, in a nutshell, that more transparency and openness would make officials more accountable (to conservative opinion). Shortly after Dumaine had soberly warned of the dangers of climate change, here was Culbertson, praising the Tea Parties and proclaiming proudly that he represented the oil and gas companies. It was, perhaps, a wake up call to the audience, many of whom seem to have disagreed with him: new tech and more transparency might benefit causes besides your own.

The media panels were excellent, especially the roundtable assessing "new, new journalism." The Seattle-PI's Monica Guzman stole that last one hands down. As someone at the ground level of the transition between old media and new, she was well equipped to talk about her own quest to keep the values of a free press alive in a very different world. The news industry is booming, she asserted, if we look at evolving neighborhood blogs and community journalists.

During lunch, a longtime business computer specialist talked over Caesar salad and chicken about "the potential for evil. Imagine what the Russians could do if they chose to throw $500 million at using these open networks to really screw things up. You can do good or evil with computers. The social network's going to stay the same."

There's far more to talk about—like the roiling conversations on Twitter, or understanding Islam through Second Life—and I'm missing a lot. Much of it I'll have to come back to in the coming days and weeks. But there's limited time before today's conference swings into full effect and a larger realization has emerged that I want to devote some time to before leaping back into the fray.

As I approached the Grand Hyatt, there was a woman clad in an orange bodysuit, complete with shiny boots. She was accompanied by a team of fresh-faced youngsters, handing out cards for Aquilent. I recognized the plastered-on "I've done this pitch 5 million times" look from my own days in retail. At the same time, a hotel employee was taking a free moment behind a grand stone pillar, doing push-ups.

Walking to the hotel this morning, I saw a homeless man's newspaper nest, molded against a bench, still bearing the imprint of the night before. 

This is a world that seemed far removed from the grand ideas inside.

At the conference itself, there was a dearth of women onstage. Out of the first day's 35 speakers, 7 were women. One was a co-presenter, two were Gov 2.0 expo award winners, Guzman was part of a panel, Dumaine got five minutes, so did Bev Godwin. The only speaker that got anything approaching a major presentation was the White House's Beth Noveck. This didn't go unnoticed: it became a major talking point in the ongoing Twitter discussion (broadcast up on the main screen, thankfully). Plenty, however, didn't see what the fuss was. I even saw the word "whining" thrown around a few times.

I don't think there's any malevolence or prejudice here, just blindness and a sad reflection on the state of Gov, be it Beta, 1.0 or 2.0. Most government department heads and high-ranking types are men, symptomatic of a bigger problem of isolation and power that seems to be beyond Gov 2.0's realm of discussion. I understand this, but the lack of diversity was telling, and it affected the ideas brought to the table as well: I would have killed for a ground-level community organizer to take the stage for 10 minutes.

The business world was also out in force: breakfast by Hewlitt-Packard, lunch by Microsoft, reception by Booz Allen Hamilton. I don't even want to hazard a guess at the annual income of the average attendee.

The problem with this blind spot is that, for most of the people here, government is already working quite well. Listening, I didn't hear talk about police brutality or the high cost of education. Looking around, I didn't see the glaze of working 18-hour days on little food. I didn't see the fear that comes with the driving uncertainty of living paycheck to paycheck. I saw precious few scars.

I saw a lot of good ideas, but I saw a worldview that remains blinkered, tragically so. It's going to be damned hard to build a better government without the input of those who need it most.

Joining the conversation at Gov 2.0

I'm a Twitterin' fool at the Gov 2.0 conference. Follow my feed or the whole discussion at #g2s if you want to join in the conversation. Please do, any ideas are welcome, and more diversity is definitely needed. Of 17 speakers this morning (many of them quite good) one was by a woman (Carol Dumaine's 5-minute tour de force on climate change). I don't want to even hazard a guess at the annual income of the average attendee.